With the African National Congress (ANC) battling a crisis of credibility‚ South Africa is not likely to see economic growth‚ the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said on Tuesday.
The ISS has recently completed research papers on ‘Analysis of economics‚ politics and instability in South Africa’ and on ‘three forecasts on South African futures up to 2024’.
“Until national elections in 2019‚ things will probably get worse before they get better‚” says Jakkie Cilliers‚ head of African Futures and Innovation at the ISS.
“The most likely scenario is a country struggling along under the weight of a failing economy and a divided leadership.
“The deciding factor will be the outcome of the ANC’s 2017 elective conference‚ which could revitalise the party or pave the way for South Africa to enter an unprecedented era of coalition politics after the 2019 election‚” Cilliers says.
According to the ISS‚ South Africa is generally considered to be the most unequal country in the world‚ “where extreme consumerism and wealth exist alongside grinding poverty and unemployment”.
“This is enough of a challenge for any government‚” says Cilliers.
“Corruption and patronage at the top have made tackling inequality almost impossible. And that’s before we factor in the policy incoherence and lack of leadership from the ruling party.”
According to the organisation‚ international and domestic confidence in the country’s potential is low because key government institutions have been unable to deliver.
“Economic pressure and poor service delivery have set South Africa on a path of growing levels of public protest and violence.
“Protests have become a part of daily life‚ increasing markedly since 2010‚” the organisation says.
“What’s worrying is the growing number of them that are turning violent.”
The ISS says the decline in public confidence in the ANC is likely to continue during the local government elections in August and in the 2019 and 2024 national elections.
Progress in the country’s economic situation will‚ according to the ISS‚ come from increased investment in the country’s technological innovation capacity and a reformed set of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) policies that allow for more targeted approaches to structural disadvantage.
Meanwhile‚ in a prepared address to a meeting of the presidential labour working group at the Union Buildings on Tuesday‚ President Jacob Zuma said‚ “It is encouraging that we are united in efforts to find ways to reignite growth. Without growth‚ it will be difficult to create the numbers of jobs that we need to break the back of unemployment”.
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